Unemployment Rate Seen Down to 4.3% — Data Week Ahead

Unemployment Rate Seen Down to 4.3% — Data Week Ahead The following are forecasts for next week’s U.S. data from a survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Write to Donna Huneke

This Week: Preview

Monday 31

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July should decline in July, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch. But the bank still sees solid expansion.

Diamond Offshore Drilling, Loews, and Pandora Media hold earnings calls.

IPO lockup restrictions expire on Invitation Homes, Laureate Education, and World Currency Gold Trust.

Panasonic releases results.

Vice President Mike Pence begins a trip to Eastern Europe.

BancFirst splits, 2 for 1.

Tuesday 1

Personal income and spending for June are reported, as is the ISM Manufacturing Index for July.

HealthSouth, Sprint, Apple, and Under Armour host earnings calls.

Clementia Pharmaceuticals, a biotech focused on treating bone diseases, is set to price 7.2 million shares at an average of $14 each.

John Flannery replaces Jeff Immelt as CEO of General Electric.

Sony and Honda post results.

Ministers of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa meet in China.

Wednesday 2

An FDA advisory committee reviews a rheumatoid arthritis injection from Janssen Biotech.

Devon Energy, EOG Resources, and Newfield Exploration host earnings conference calls.

Venator Materials, a maker of titanium dioxide pigments and additives spun out of Huntsman, prices 23 million shares at an average of $21 each.

Supervalu has a reverse, 1-for-7, stock split after the market close.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speak to different groups.

The German automobile industry holds a mini-summit in the wake of the vehicle emissions scandal.

Thursday 3

The Bank of England issues its decision on interest rates.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports on July job-cut announcements.

Ball, Chesapeake Energy, GrubHub, and Williams host earnings calls.

Hasbro hosts an investor day.

A Senate committee holds a hearing on insurance fraud in America.

Friday 4

Look for July nonfarm payrolls to rise by 200,000, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch, sustaining the solid momentum from the prior month. It sees the jobless rate ticking down to 4.3%.

Dynegy, Post Holdings, and Southwestern Energy host earnings calls.

Dates to Watch For: Page M31

Treasury Auctions: Page M35

Week’s Highlight

Friday 4: Nonfarm payrolls for July are seen rising by 200,000, and the jobless rate is seen ticking down.

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ДАННЫЕ ЕВРОЗОНЫ: В центре внимания – данные по инфляции и ВВП за 2-й квартал ЛОНДОН, 28 июля (Dow Jones). К очевидному неудовольствию Европейского центрального банка годовые темпы инфляции в еврозоне остались существенно ниже целевого уровня, установленного регулятором, даже несмотря на резкое падение безработицы за последние три года с момента запуска программы количественного смягчения. Ожидается, что данные Eurostat, которые выйдут в понедельник, покажут дальнейшее сокращение безработицы в июне и сохранение темпов инфляции в июле на прежнем уровне в 1,3% годовых, который является минимальным в 2017 году. Экономика еврозоны в текущем году превзошла ожидания, в 1-м квартале опередив экономику США по темпам роста. Согласно предварительным данным, ожидаемым во вторник, рост ВВП еврозоны во 2-м квартале должен был продолжиться такими же или даже несколько более высокими темпами.

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ДАННЫЕ ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИИ: В фокусе – заседание Банка Англии и данные PMI ЛОНДОН, 28 июля (Dow Jones). Учитывая все еще слабый рост ВВП Великобритании во 2-м квартале, опрошенные Wall Street Journal экономисты полагают, что Банк Англии не изменит ключевую процентную ставку. Решение центрального банка будет опубликовано в четверг. Впрочем, большинство аналитиков по-прежнему прогнозируют, что два или три руководителя центрального банка не согласятся с большинством и проголосуют за немедленное повышение ставок. Рынки внимательно изучат протоколы Банка Англии на предмет намеков на ужесточение денежно-кредитной политики. Еще до решения центрального банка IHS Markit опубликует данные по активности в производственной сфере и сфере услуг в июле, причем экономисты ожидают, что оба индекса отметятся ростом.

Bank of England, PMIs In Focus Next Week By Wiktor Szary LONDON--Given that U.K. economic growth remained sluggish in the second quarter, economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect the Bank of England will keep the benchmark interest rate on hold when it announces the decision Thursday. However, most analysts still predict that two or three policymakers will dissent and vote for an immediate increase to borrowing costs, and markets will be parsing the minutes of officials’ deliberations for any hawkish hints. Earlier in the week, IHS Markit will publish its closely watched measures of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in July, with analysts expecting an uptick in both.

Global Economy Week Ahead: Eurozone GDP and Inflation, U.S. Jobs By WSJ Staff This week, the eurozone will see inflation and gross domestic product figures, while the U.S. will learn more about the state of consumer spending and inflation in the June personal-income report. The week culminates with the July U.S. jobs report Friday.

MONDAY: The eurozone’s annual rate of inflation has remained well below the European Central Bank’s target, even as unemployment has fallen sharply since the central bank launched stimulus programs. Figures to be released by the European Union’s statistics agency are expected to show that, while the number of people without work fell again in June, consumer prices rose in the 12 months to July at the same 1.3% pace as in June, which was the lowest in 2017.

TUESDAY: The eurozone has been one of the positive surprises for the global economy this year, having outpaced the U.S. in the three months through March. Eurostat’s preliminary estimate of gross domestic product in the second quarter is expected to show that growth continued at that stronger pace or possibly a little faster.

The U.S. Commerce Department releases the June personal-income report. The release includes figures on consumer spending, as well as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the price index for personal-consumption expenditures. The 12-month figure is expected to remain weak, restrained by recent price declines for items like wireless telephone services. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect consumer spending inched up 0.1% in June from the previous month and core PCE prices nudged up 0.1%.

THURSDAY: The Bank of England announces its latest policy decision, with no change expected despite signs that a number of the Monetary Policy Committee’s members would like to see the key rate raised from a record low of 0.25%. But with inflation easing in June, and growth still modest in the second quarter, a majority are likely to oppose a rate increase. The BOE also will publish new forecasts for growth and inflation, which will give some guidance as to the future direction of policy.

FRIDAY: The U.S. Labor Department releases the July employment report, after the prior month’s report showed employers churning out jobs without generating robust wage growth. U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 222,000 jobs in June, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4% as more people joined the labor force. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the economy added 180,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%.

The U.S. Commerce Department releases the June international trade report. The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May on a swift rise in exports, and Friday’s gross domestic product report showed trade providing a boost to the economy in the second quarter, suggesting any headwinds from a strong U.S. dollar might be subsiding. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the trade deficit was $44.4 billion in June.


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