Solid Employment Growth Expected to Continue — Data Week Ahead

Solid Employment Growth Expected to Continue — Data Week Ahead The following are forecasts for next week’s U.S. data from a survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Write to Donna Huneke

Global Economy Week Ahead: China Trade, Bank of Japan Meeting, U.S. Jobs In the week ahead, China will release foreign-exchange and trade data, the U.S. will see fresh numbers on fourth-quarter productivity and jobs, and the Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting.

MONDAY: China’s National People’s Congress, the annual legislative meeting, starts Monday. Economists expect Premier Li Keqiang to announce an economic growth target of around 6.5% this year, the same as last year, but will be watching for any changes in policy stance.

WEDNESDAY: China’s stockpile of foreign exchange could have edged lower, following a full year of expansion due to valuation effects. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect China’s foreign-exchange reserves to have decreased to about $3.15 trillion at the end of February, from $3.161 trillion at the end of January.

The U.S. Labor Department releases revised data for fourth-quarter productivity. The initial reading showed productivity decreased at a 0.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate. For 2017 as a whole, U.S. worker productivity grew below its long-run average. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast fourth-quarter productivity fell a revised 0.3%.

THURSDAY: China could post a small trade deficit for last month. Economists expect that the country’s exports and imports both slowed in February. They have cautioned against reading too much into trade data at the beginning of the year due to the shifting timing of the Lunar New Year. Exports grew more than 11% in January, and imports surged nearly 37%.

The Bank of Japan holds a regular policy meeting Thursday and Friday. Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, recently renominated to a new five-year term, said Friday that he likely will be ready next year to start considering an exit from his easing policy.

FRIDAY: The U.S. Labor Department releases the February jobs report. In January, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers rose 2.9% from a year earlier, their largest year-over-year increase since June 2009. Analysts will watch for any wage-growth slowdown in February, as well as movement in the unemployment rate, which could tick down further to 4%, from 4.1%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast the unemployment rate in February was 4% and that the economy added 205,000 jobs.

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ДАННЫЕ ЕВРОЗОНЫ: В фокусе – ВВП и PMI для сферы услу ЛОНДОН, 2 марта. (Dow Jones). На предстоящей неделе экономисты будут внимательно следить за индексами менеджеров по снабжению (PMI) для сферы услуг стран еврозоны, публикация которых намечена на понедельник. Кроме того, в среду будет опубликована окончательная статистика по росту ВВП в 4-м квартале предыдущего года.

КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ ДАННЫЕ ВЕЛИКОБРИТАНИИ: В фокусе – PMI и промышленное производство ЛОНДОН, 2 марта. (Dow Jones). В центре внимания финансовых рынков на предстоящей неделе будет находиться индекс менеджеров по снабжению (PMI) для сферы услуг Великобритании, публикация которого намечена на понедельник. Опрошенные The Wall Street Journal экономисты ожидают небольшого увеличения активности в этом сегменте, который очень важен, так как его доля в структуре ВВП составляет 80%. Аналитики также будут ждать данных по промышленному производству в Великобритании за первый месяц 2018 года, который будет опубликован в пятницу. Аналитики прогнозируют рост производства.

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